POLL: GOP Budget Bill Faces Nearly 2-to-1 Opposition With Many Unaware
Brianna Tucker, Scott Clement and Emily Guskin The Washington Post
A plurality of voters oppose the sweeping tax-and-spending legislation, with mixed opinions on specific provisions, according to a Washington Post-Ipsos poll conducted earlier this month.
Overall, 42 percent of Americans oppose the budget bill “changing tax, spending and Medicaid policies” that narrowly passed in May by the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives, compared with 23 percent of Americans who support the bill, and 34 percent who say they have no opinion.
Support among Republicans is higher, with 49 percent who say they support the bill compared to 13 percent who oppose, and 38 percent who say they have no opinion. Democrats strongly oppose the bill, with about three-quarters of Democrats against it. Independents also oppose it 40 percent to 17 percent, while about 4 in 10 independents have no opinion on the bill.
Since the House narrowly passed its version of the bill, Senate Republicans have scrambled to emphasize the bill’s economic benefits to voters and pass their version of it by Trump’s deadline of the Fourth of July. But most people are not very aware of the legislation, and among those who have heard about the bill, it’s unpopular. About two-thirds of the public says they have heard either little or nothing about the budget bill. Those who have heard a great deal or a good amount about it oppose it by a roughly 2-to-1 margin, 64 percent to 33 percent, with nearly half strongly in opposition.
Opinions on specific aspects of the bill — which includes tax cuts, increased spending on border security, cuts to spending on social safety net programs such as Medicaid, and rollbacks on spending to curb climate change — however are nuanced, ranging from very popular to very unpopular.
A clear majority of Americans support increasing the child tax credit from $2,000 to $2,500 — 72 percent — and 65 percent support eliminating taxes on earnings from tips. But 66 percent of Americans broadly oppose cutting federal funding for food assistance to low-income households compared to 23 percent who support this, while 61 percent oppose spending $45 billion on migrant detention centers compared to 24 percent.
Another 51 percent oppose ending tax breaks for producing solar, wind and geothermal energy compared to 31 percent who support it; and 52 percent are against spending roughly $50 billion to complete a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border compared to 36 percent. Other recent polls have found higher support for a border wall without a price tag.
One of the most divisive components of the House-passed package are the size and scope of cuts to entitlement programs. To deliver on some of Trump’s pricey initiatives, the Republican bill plans to significantly cut spending on Medicaid as well as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and other safety net initiatives.
Republican Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Josh Hawley (Missouri) have all raised alarms about far-reaching changes to Medicaid and its impact on rural health-care facilities in their states.
The Post-Ipsos poll finds most Americans agree on new work requirements, with a 52 percent majority saying they support requiring low-income childless adults to prove they are working or disabled to get health insurance through Medicaid, compared with 33 percent who oppose. But they are less comfortable with the prospect of people losing coverage under tighter eligibility rules: 44 percent say it’s unacceptable for about 8 million people to lose health insurance as a result of these requirements as well as more frequent eligibility verification and state restrictions, while 32 percent say this is acceptable. When new requirements are not specified, the poll finds 63 percent saying it’s unacceptable for 8 million people to lose Medicaid health insurance.
The weak acceptability when loss of coverage is mentioned signals an uphill messaging battle for GOP senators, as nonpartisan analyses of the bill show some parts such as cuts to Medicaid and food stamps would harm low-income households financially more than the tax cuts would boost their finances.
Opinions on extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts are mixed. A 71 percent majority supports extending tax cuts for individuals with incomes under $100,000, as do 53 percent when asked about individuals with incomes between $100,000 and $200,000. But support drops to 29 percent for lengthening tax cuts for individuals with income above $400,000 and 30 percent for corporations.
Nearly 7 in 10 Americans — including similar majorities of Democrats and Republicans — support raising taxes on individuals making $2.5 million or more, an idea Trump pitched in May but that House Republicans left out of the bill.
Republican leadership, including House Speaker Mike Johnson (Louisiana) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (South Dakota), all maintain that Trump’s sweeping legislation would reduce the national debt, but that budget math has yet to add up — as some fiscal hawks have pointed out.
According to analyses from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office — which the GOP has disputed and sought to frame as partisan and inaccurate — the bill is estimated to add $3 trillion to the national debt over the next 10 years. A 63 percent majority of the public says that increase is unacceptable, while just 13 percent say this is acceptable, and 24 percent are unsure. Many Republicans balk at the debt increase: 47 percent say a $3 trillion debt increase is unacceptable, while 25 say it’s acceptable.
Despite that narrow path to the bill’s passage in the upper chamber, Trump and Thune have repeatedly reiterated that “failure is not an option.”
The Post-Ipsos poll was conducted online June 6-10 among 1,167 U.S. adults. The sample was drawn through the Ipsos KnowledgePanel, an ongoing panel of U.S. households recruited by mail using random sampling methods. Overall results have a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.