NATO’s New Northern Leaders
Mark Hertling The Bulwark
While many headlines have focused on President Trump’s demands that NATO nations “pay more,” these countries aren’t spending more because Washington told them to. (If that were the case, then they would have boosted their defense budgets years ago.) They’re investing in defense because Russia reminded them why deterrence matters.
The Nordic-Baltic Eight have long shared geography, values, and an acute understanding of Russian behavior. With Sweden and Finland now under NATO’s formal umbrella, this regional grouping has emerged not as a quiet coalition, but as a leadership caucus—shaping policy, driving modernization, and reinforcing transatlantic resolve in ways far that go beyond what their population sizes or economies alone would indicate.
Their unity was evident even before the summit. In February, the eight nations delivered a joint statement supporting continued aid to Ukraine and emphasizing deterrence by capability. At the summit, they coordinated proposals for long-range air defense coverage across the High North. And most importantly, they steered discussions about Arctic security and hybrid threats—two domains in which these countries, thanks to their particular experience and expertise, are increasingly shaping NATO planning.
That leadership role didn’t materialize overnight. It’s been built over years—through consistent investment, joint training, and contributions to NATO Centers of Excellence, where the alliance trains leaders and specialists from every member nation, develops doctrine, and prepares for the challenges of the future. Estonia, for example, now leads NATO’s Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence, the alliance’s hub for cyber doctrine, exercises, and incident response. Latvia hosts the Strategic Communications Center of Excellence, which has been crucial in countering Russian disinformation. Lithuania, meanwhile, plays a leading role in energy security through its own Center of Excellence. These centers help do the vital work that sustains the alliance—creating, testing, and disseminating new ideas that help prevent NATO from going “brain dead” in peacetime.
Finland and Sweden are rapidly integrating into NATO’s institutions, including not only the Centers of Excellence but also the military commands. Both nations already meet the highest standards of military professionalism, but in the last two years, they’ve taken further steps to contribute to collective security. Both countries have expanded their defense budgets and are reinvigorating their national defense industries. Finland is building out domestic production of artillery systems, ammunition, and vehicle platforms. Sweden has reactivated shuttered regiments and is reinvesting in its naval and ground-based air defense systems. Other Nordic nations are doing the same. Norway has expanded procurement of maritime surveillance aircraft. Denmark has announced a ten-year plan to strengthen its Arctic presence and is beginning a cooperative drone production program with Ukraine.
They’re also increasing recruitment. Finland, which has compulsory military service, raised its age cap for reservists, adding an estimated 125,000 soldiers to its wartime army. In Sweden, enlistment is compulsory, but only a small percentage are permitted to join the military, which is (rightly) considered a prestigious and honorable public service. In the coming years, Sweden plans to increase its annual recruits by more than half.
NONE OF THIS IS OCCURRING IN A VACUUM. These countries are responding to a very real and proximate threat. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was not a regional anomaly—it was a wake-up call. For the Nordic-Baltic Eight, it clarified something that should have been obvious to the rest of Europe: Hard power, political will, and alliance credibility still matter.
Perhaps nowhere is that more apparent than in the Arctic. This week’s NATO summit devoted more time than any previous one to security in the High North, driven by two converging realities. First, Sweden’s and Finland’s accessions added vital geostrategic depth to the alliance’s northern flank. But second—and more importantly—climate change is opening new shipping lanes and zones for resource extraction. These shifting environmental conditions are creating new military and economic competition in the Arctic, especially as Russia expands its Northern Fleet and reinforces its airbases near the Barents Sea. NATO, long slow to formulate Arctic policy, is now leaning heavily on the NB8 to guide its response.
Finland’s 830-mile border with Russia has become one of NATO’s most strategically sensitive zones. Instead of NATO members having a few relatively short borders with Russia, the alliance now has a long line of contact near the Kola Peninsula, home to much of Russia’s nuclear submarine deterrent and early warning systems. This is not just symbolic—it creates new operational realities. Similarly, Sweden’s control of Gotland Island reinforces NATO’s command over central Baltic Sea lanes, further isolating Kaliningrad and placing additional constraints on Russia’s Baltic Fleet.
But perhaps the most important shift isn’t tactical. It’s cultural. These nations are not just defenders of territory. They are advocates for the alliance’s values—resilience, transparency, and democratic civil-military relations. Their defense ministries are emphasizing public education, infrastructure hardening, and hybrid threat response. Their officers serve in NATO command structures and participate in complex joint exercises like BALTOPS and Arctic Challenge.
THE TRUST SO ESSENTIAL to effective coalitions doesn’t come from treaties alone. It’s earned. During my time commanding U.S. Army Europe, we trained and exercised extensively with the Baltic states after their hard-won independence from the Soviet Union. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania became valued partners in NATO missions and U.S.-led coalitions. We also worked with long-standing NATO members Norway and Denmark, especially in operations across the Balkans and Afghanistan, and we also trained with Sweden and Finland—then non-aligned nations whose professionalism and commitment made them reliable and respected partners. Though not yet formal allies, they acted like them. They’ve been de facto members of NATO for years; their formal accession has only made the alliance stronger. Through those shared efforts, we built more than interoperability—we built trust. And alliances, in the end, are made not simply on paper, but through shared experiences and mutual confidence forged in joint struggle.
Perhaps most importantly, what the NB8 bring to the alliance isn’t just military professionalism but populations that understand the threat posed by Putin’s Russia and are willing to do what it takes to deter or defeat it. In Finland, trust in the military is near 90 percent—which is remarkably high considering almost everyone serves. In Sweden, nearly the entire political spectrum supports the decision to abandon centuries of neutrality and join NATO. All eight nations are on track to meet or exceed the 2 percent GDP defense spending target, but more importantly, they are using those funds smartly—on personnel, logistics, modernization, and resilience. They’re not just checking boxes. They’re preparing for the future.
At the close of the summit in the Hague, as leaders posed for photographs and issued statements, it was clear that NATO’s center of gravity is shifting north. That’s not a rejection of American leadership or a substitute for broader alliance cohesion. It’s a recognition that deterrence works best when it’s distributed—and when those closest to the threat take the lead.
The Nordic-Baltic Eight are doing just that. They’ve demonstrated that strong values, serious planning, and regional trust-building are not only compatible with NATO’s mission—they are essential to it. Sweden and Finland didn’t just join NATO. Along with their neighbors, they are helping it evolve—toward greater agility, credibility, and purpose.
And in doing so, they’ve sent a message—not just to Moscow, but to Brussels, Washington, and the rest of the world. When democracies take threats seriously and act together, they don’t just survive. They lead.