The Joe Biden we saw during the 27 June debate with Donald Trump was a man in marked decline. We did see it and no amount of denial or gaslighting changes what was painfully apparent. We also saw Donald Trump and no amount of lying (and there was plenty) or gaslighting changes the reality of who he is either.

It’s important not to lose sight of what the two men fundamentally represent. One is a dedicated lifelong public servant and the other is an avowed fascist and political anarchist who intends to reorganize the American Democratic Republic into an empire that he will rule.

Even if Joe Biden literally expires the day his second term in office begins he will be handing off the baton to Vice President Kamala Harris who will at a very bare minimum if nothing else obey and uphold the law and the constitution. While that may not sound remarkable consider the alternative universe you will be living in if Donald Trump reassumes control of the oval office.

We are talking utter chaos, anything goes. Convicted criminals overseeing law enforcement, overseeing national security, overseeing US armed forces all of it is on the table. Michael Flynn, Peter Navarro, Paul Manafort and a whole host of other bad actors who have been convicted of federal crimes placed in positions of power and public trust. Not to mention a get out of jail free card for everyone convicted of attacking the US Capitol on 6 January 2021.

There are right-wing anarchists lining up for miles to enact every kind of nut-job, fascist program they can draw up on a restaurant napkin. A quick glance at the latest draft of Project 2025 is eye opening stuff. They are making this stuff up as they go along and having the time of their lives doing it.

The path forward for the Democrats, near term looks turbulent. Replacing Biden at this late stage would be a high-risk, high-stress undertaking even if Biden wanted to pass the baton and there is no indication that he wants to. Nonetheless the degree of pressure on Biden to relent is high enough at this stage that he—might—consider making a move that would improve the Democrats electoral prospects.

It’s important to bear in mind that while the Democrats love to talk about the sacredness of democracy as a bedrock principle of American life they often find it inconvenient to practice when picking presidential candidates. Ideally if a new candidate emerged it would be through a process fair and inclusive enough to energize the voters. Energized voters being the point.

All of that having been said, be prepared we appear in for stormy weather.