Donald Trump's support among one of his most loyal constituencies — rural Americans — is showing signs of significant erosion.

Why It Matters

Rural voters have long been a cornerstone of Trump's base, and any slippage in their support could have major implications for future Republican success. A weakening grip on rural America not only threatens GOP margins in key battleground states but also signals broader cracks in the coalition Trump needs to push his second term agenda.

What To Know

The 2024 election saw Trump win 63 percent of rural voters, up from 60 percent in 2020, according to AP VoteCast.

But a new PBS/NPR/Marist poll, conducted between April 21 and 23 among 1,439 adults, shows that Trump's support among rural voters is declining.

According to the poll, just 46 percent of rural voters now approve of Trump's job performance, while 45 percent disapprove. In February, 59 percent approved and 37 percent disapproved.

Trump's approval rating has also declined slightly among urban, small city, and suburban voters. Among big city voters, his approval has dropped from 42 percent to 40 percent. Among small city voters, his approval has dropped from 42 percent to 36 percent.

Meanwhile, among suburban voters, his approval rating has declined by 1 point to 40 percent. The only group that Trump has seen a rise in support from is small town voters, with 53 percent now approving of his job performance, up from 46 percent in February. The poll had a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points.

ActiVote's latest poll, conducted between March 31-April 29 among 576 voters, also showed a decline in support among rural voters for Trump. The poll showed that 49 percent approve of his job performance, while 46 percent disapprove. His approval is down 9 points since March, when 58 percent approved, and 15 points from January, when 64 percent approved. Meanwhile, his disapproval is up 6 points since March and 11 points since January. The poll had a margin of error of ±4.1 percentage points.

The recent polling trend shows a consistent decline in Trump's approval ratings across multiple demographic groups.

Newsweek's tracker shows that Trump's approval rating currently stands at 44 percent, while 52 percent disapprove, marking one of his lowest approval ratings to date.

Other polls have also shown this trend. In the latest YouGov/Yahoo poll, conducted April 25-28 among 1,597 respondents, his approval dropped from 44 percent in March to 42 percent, while disapproval rose from 50 percent to 53 percent, widening his net negative from –6 to –11. The poll had a margin of error of ±2.9 percentage points.

Emerson College also released a poll this week, which showed that Trump's approval rating had dropped marginally, from 47 percent to 45 percent, since March, while his disapproval rating remained the same at 45 percent. The most recent poll was conducted April 25-28 among 1,000 registered voters and had a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

Trump also saw a drop in Navigator's latest poll, conducted between April 24-28 among 1,000 registered voters, which suggested 44 percent of Americans approve of Trump's performance as president, while 54 percent disapprove. That is down from a 48 percent approval rating in February and up from a 49 percent disapproval rating.

Meanwhile, the latest CNN poll, conducted April 17-24 among 1,678 respondents, suggested that he had the lowest approval rating for any president after 100 days since Dwight D. Eisenhower and that Trump is now less popular than he was at the same point during his first term.

And in ActiVote's latest poll, Trump's approval rating stood at 45 percent, while 51 percent disapproved, giving the president a net approval of -6 points. ActiVote's March poll showed Trump with a net approval rating of -1 point, with 48 percent approving and 49 percent disapproving.

Trump's approval ratings have declined since the announcement of his "Liberation Day" tariffs. The sweeping move roiled the markets, triggering an immediate sell-off that was followed by a rebound days later.

Trump's handling of the tariffs has been met with mixed reactions, including increased public concern among rural voters.

The PBS/NPR/Marist poll shows that 48 percent of rural voters disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy, compared to 45 percent who approve. And on the issue of tariffs, 49 percent think they will hurt the economy, compared to 39 percent who think they will help. Overall, 53 percent of rural voters disapprove of Trump's handling of tariffs, while 39 percent approve.

Meanwhile, 57 percent said they expect grocery prices to rise over the next 6 months. Only 19 percent said they think prices will decrease, and 24 percent said they will stay the same.

Tim Slack, a sociology professor at LSU, told Newsweek that he is "not especially surprised by these results.

"Lower income and working class folks, who make up a greater share of the population in rural America, are really hurting right now. And they have been for years," he said, explaining that economic recovery after 2008 was "slow and uneven," and many areas were still struggling when COVID hit, driving up prices.

Slack noted that "poverty is higher in rural America," with lower labor participation and a "growing rural-urban gap in death rates." With many rural areas aging rapidly, fixed incomes are a growing concern.

He also criticized Trump's economic promises: "People may be realizing that a trade war with China isn't going to bring down prices at Walmart," he said.

How Donald Trump's Approval Rating Compares to First Term

The RealClearPolitics tracker showed that on May 2, 2017, Trump's approval rating was 43 percent, while his disapproval rating was 52 percent, giving him a net approval rating of -9 points, making Trump equally as unpopular now as the same point in his first stint in the Oval Office.

However, other polls have shown that Trump is less popular now than he was at the same point during his first term.

How Donald Trump's Approval Rating Compares to Joe Biden's

Trump's 44 percent approval rating is lower than that of former President Joe Biden at the same point in his presidency. On May 2, 2021, Biden stood at 54 percent, with a disapproval rating of 42 percent, according to RealClearPolitics.

While Trump began his second term with higher approval ratings than ever before, according to Gallup's first poll of Trump's second term, conducted between January 21 and 27, he was still less popular than any president since 1953 at the start of a term and the only one to begin with a sub-50 percent approval rating. Gallup said Biden started his first term with a 57 percent approval rating.

And according to data compiled from Gallup by The American Presidency Project, Trump ranks far below other recently elected presidents after 100 days, dating back to Eisenhower, who had an approval rating of 73 percent.

Other recently elected presidents saw higher approval ratings at the 100-day mark, including: John F. Kennedy 83 percent; Richard Nixon 62 percent; Jimmy Carter 63 percent; Ronald Reagan 68 percent; George H.W. Bush 56 percent; Bill Clinton 55 percent; George W. Bush 62 percent; and Barack Obama 65 percent.

What People Are Saying

Tim Slack, Professor of Sociology at Louisiana State University, told Newsweek: "The economic recovery from the Great Recession of 2008 was especially slow and uneven in rural America. Many places hadn't fully recovered when the COVID-19 pandemic hit, disrupting supply chains and driving up prices.

"Poverty is higher in rural America. Underemployment is higher and labor force participation is lower among rural working-age folks. There is a wide and growing rural-urban gap in death rates among working-age people—part of the rural mortality penalty. So, the struggles are pronounced.

"And while the entire U.S. population is aging, the trend is more prominent in rural America. Most "older-age counties"—counties with more than 25 percent of their population 65 and older—are in rural America. So, folks on fixed incomes are a bigger deal. President Trump had vowed to 'bring prices down, starting on Day One.' That didn't happen. In fact, in many respects economic conditions have worsened.

"And while economic conditions and the cost of living are likely the bigger factors here, it is worth noting that Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid play a significant role in supporting rural Americans. There could be unease about the cutting at the federal level and where that is headed."

What Happens Next

Trump's approval rating could fluctuate in the coming weeks, depending on the outcome of key events, including critical negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine war, the evolving tariff situation and concerns about a recession.