New Reuters/Ipsos poll found widespread worries that US could see a repeat of the unrest that followed Trump’s 2020 defeat

Two out of three Americans say they are concerned that political violence could follow the 5 November election rematch between Joe Biden and his Republican predecessor and challenger, Donald Trump, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found.

The survey of 3,934 US adults found widespread worries that the US could see a repeat of the unrest that followed Trump’s 2020 election defeat, when the then president’s false claim that his loss was the result of fraud prompted thousands of followers to storm the US Capitol.

Trump is once again laying the groundwork to contest the results should he lose to Biden a second time.

In an online poll, 68% of respondents – including 83% of Democrats and 65% of Republicans – said they agreed with a statement that they were concerned that extremists will resort to violence if they are unhappy with the election outcome.

Overall, 15% of respondents disagreed and 16% were unsure. In recent interviews, Trump has refused to commit to accepting the election results and at campaign rallies has portrayed Democrats as cheats.

Outside the New York courtroom where his criminal hush-money trial is taking place, fellow Republican officeholders have repeated the falsehood that the 2020 election was “stolen” from him because of widespread voter fraud.

The new poll, conducted 7-14 May, found that Republicans harbor more distrust in the fairness of US elections than Democrats. Only 47% said they were confident that the results of the November election will be accurate and legitimate, compared with 87% of Democrats who expressed confidence. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Though dozens of court cases rejected Trump’s claims of fraud, the president and his allies launched a wide-ranging effort to prevent Congress from certifying the results, culminating in the 6 January 2021 attack on the Capitol. One hundred and forty police officers were injured, one died the next day and four later died by suicide.

More than 1,400 people have been arrested for their involvement in the attack and more than 500 of those have been sentenced to prison, according to the US Department of Justice, including leaders of far-right groups. Trump himself denies criminal charges brought in Washington DC and Georgia.

Recent Reuters reporting has shown that election workers, judges and other public officials have faced a wave of threats and harassment since 2020.