Alaska’s U.S. Senate race probably won’t be decided for weeks.

Democrat Mary Peltola held a narrow lead over Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) going into the weekend in Alaska’s dramatically close race Senate race.

Peltola led by less than one percentage point — a difference of just 600-some votes — with about 75 percent of voting counted, according to the Associated Press. Neither candidate has the majority needed to win outright. The state is expected to reveal another batch of votes on Tuesday.

Four candidates are on the general election ballot under the state’s ranked-choice voting system. Coming out of Election Day, the two other candidates, retired schoolteacher Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. and Gerald Heikes, together drew more than enough votes to make the difference between Peltola and Sullivan.

Democrats have been under fire following a New York Times report that they recruited Dan J. Sullivan as a spoiler to dilute the vote away from Sullivan. Peltola and Alaska Democrats deny it.

President Donald Trump on Thursday morning demanded that the incumbent be declared the winner.

“The vote totals for the Fake Dan Sullivan, plus the other ‘slug’ that the Dems put on the Ballot, should be immediately given to the REAL Dan Sullivan, and the Election is over - He easily wins. There is no other fair solution!” Trump posted on Truth Social.

Alaska law doesn’t allow that: When a candidate is eliminated, each ballot moves only to the next candidate voters ranked, and ballots with no further ranking drop out.

Sen. Sullivan asserts that he could win with the second-choice votes and the ballots that have yet to be counted. With the currently reported votes, he would win once the bottom two candidates’ votes are redistributed.

Many of the uncounted votes were cast after the Times story, which his campaign said could sway voters in his favor.

But there is still a path to victory for Peltola. Like in the primary, she secured a substantial share of the second-choice votes among ballots cast for Dan J. Sullivan. If the next rounds of ballots push her over 50 percent among first-choice voters, she would win outright.

Democrats have already won control of the Senate, so the outcome won’t decide the majority, but it will set its size. A Peltola win would make her the first Alaska Native in the Senate and the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Alaska since Mark Begich in 2008.

Alaska has historically voted for Republican presidents, with Donald Trump winning by more than 13 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election. But the state’s high percentage of independent voters and unique vulnerability to the Trump administration’s federal spending cuts have given Democrats hope that they can flip the seat.

Election results are expected to take days because of the state’s ranked-choice voting system and the remoteness of many Alaskan communities.

Why results could take a while

The wait for definitive results could take days or even weeks.

In Alaska’s voting system, if no one gets a majority of first-choice votes, the last-place candidate is eliminated, and the process repeats until two candidates remain.

Alaska will accept eligible mail ballots from inside the country through Nov. 13 and from overseas through Nov. 18. Also slowing the tally are the state’s 131 hand-count precincts, many in rural areas.

Election officials won’t run the ranked-choice tabulation until Nov. 18 and aim to certify results Nov. 25.

And certification may not end the fight. Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) has ordered a state investigation into Sullivan Jr.’s candidacy and said certification could be “stopped or changed” if wrongdoing is found. Peltola denies any role in recruiting him.

The Justice Department also sued Oct. 22 to block certification if the senator loses by fewer votes than his namesake received. A U.S. district judge dismissed the suit Sunday, ruling that the department had offered no workable way to tell whether votes for Sullivan Jr. were meant for the senator without breaching ballot secrecy.

The department has appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit, which so far has shown no sign of taking up the matter quickly. It has set a briefing schedule for arguments on the Justice Department’s appeal that extends into January, and the Justice Department has not yet sought to move up that timeline.

What’s at stake

Peltola is a prize recruit of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who bet that her past electoral successes would translate to crossover appeal in the Senate race.

Peltola won a special and general election in 2022 for the state’s at-large House seat before losing reelection in 2024, and was endorsed at the time by Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R), a close friend from their time in the state House.

This year, Peltola has run away from the Democratic brand, endorsing positions that are out of step with her party in the Lower 48 but popular in Alaska, including on fossil fuel development and gun ownership. She has also tried to pin Sullivan to Trump policies that have been largely unpopular in the state. The fuel price increases due to the war with Iran have been a particularly important issue, as most Alaskan communities need to ship in basic goods and rely on diesel to heat their homes.

Cuts to federal spending by the Department of Government Efficiency and under Republicans’ tax-and-spending package also affected programs vital to Alaskans, including public radio, weather reports and Medicaid.

Peltola has also gone after Sullivan for campaign contributions from large trawling operations, which can harm local fisheries by depleting stocks. Peltola is proposing a ban on trawling.

Sullivan has countered that he has been an effective senator, securing protections for influential Alaska Native communities, protecting Alaska’s oil and gas development as well as advocating for the state’s many service members. He introduced legislation to address bycatch — the mass capture of fish and other marine life by trawling operations — and asserted that Peltola was far less effective during her time in Congress.

Sullivan also has said that Peltola’s independent streak will be moot if she votes in step with a Democratic Senate majority, which has historically been hostile to the state’s oil and gas development. Fossil fuel funds a considerable share of the state budget, depending on the cost of oil.

Democrats in the Senate are expected to promote Sen. Maria Cantwell (Washington) to Commerce Committee chair. Cantwell’s state is home to many large trawling operations, and she has opposed efforts from Alaska to rein in trawling.

The Senate race has attracted heavy spending from outside the state, making it among the most expensive in Alaska’s history.

Democrats came out in considerably greater numbers during the state’s nonpartisan primary in August, alarming Republicans. In the general election, national conservative figures have traveled to the state to support Sullivan and rally the Republican base, including Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Sens. John Kennedy (Louisiana) and Ted Cruz (Texas).

Murkowski endorsed Sullivan shortly after Peltola announced her candidacy but did not take an active role during much of the campaign.

Sullivan Jr., a retired schoolteacher, ran as a Republican during the primary, to the chagrin of the incumbent senator. Republicans asserted the other Sullivan was a spoiler candidate planted by Democrats to confuse voters. He and Alaska Democrats have denied any such ploy. The general election ballot does not list a party affiliation for him.

Republicans, including Trump, demanded criminal charges against Peltola after the New York Times said in a report that her campaign was involved in recruiting the former schoolteacher to run. The Justice Department has been investigating the matter, sending target and preservation letters to people close to the Peltola campaign.