Putin and the Russian Military have what amounts to eight divisions of military personnel and equipment arrayed in an arc around Ukraine. That is how one country prepares to invade another. In fact it is precisely what the US did in preparation for the 2003 invasion of Iraq. And then it invaded. Iraqi weapons of mass-destruction never found, 19 years on.

So what will Putin do? It depends. He seems rather focused on The Donbas. The Russians are alleging that human rights atrocities have been committed against Russian sympathizers in Eastern Ukraine, specifically in the Donbas region. The U.S categorically denies those claims.

Conveniently the Russians have filed their grievance in a report to the United Nations. Very well, now might be a good time for UN Human Rights observers to enter the region in an effort to sort things out. Introducing an ostensibly objective third party into the equation could provide a respite from the overheated rhetoric of conflict that increasingly appears to be shaping events.

Residents in the Mayorsk settlement near Russian occupied Donetsk, Ukraine, make their way towards a border crossing. (photo: Anastasia Vlasova for UNDP)

In the shadow of war a pause to consider the rights of humanity is never a bad idea, so let the UN have at it. If in six months no mass graves have been found, there will still be plenty of time to begin creating new ones, or not depending on the degree to which reasonable minds have prevailed in the interim.

It bears noting that US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken appeared before the UN as well Thursday saying, "I am here today not to start a war, but to prevent one.” Rather remarkably Blinken attempted to address the damage done to American credibility by then Secretary of State, Colin Powell’s 2002 address to the very same chamber making the case for US military action in Iraq. Powell’s arguments proved ultimately false and manufactured for public relations purposes.

American Credibility Or the Lack Thereof

So the US corporate media speaking on behalf of the US government wants us to know that Putin’s objective in invading Ukraine is to install a “Russia-friendly” puppet leader. Presumably to replace the last “Russia-friendly” puppet leader, Viktor Yanukovych who was ousted by what was portrayed in the US media as a popular uprising.

To be sure Yanukovych was a Putin tool and a crook, the Ukrainian people absolutely deserved better. But the “Ukrainian Revolution” as it was dubbed by members of the Western press was anything but organic or spontaneous. The US was heavily involved in orchestrating the uprising that overthrew Yanukovych every step of the way. Steve Weissman writing for Reader Supported News spelled it out in granular detail in his 2014 piece, Meet the Americans Who Put Together the Coup in Kiev.

So what’s the harm, after all one less Putin puppet furthers the cause of democracy, no? The course of events tells a different and more problematic story. The US seems never to learn the lessons or to be able to comprehend the perils of regional destabilization.

Just because we are able to reorder the affairs of foreign civilizations doesn’t mean we should or even want to. Up until Vietnam the US could claim that it did not understand this lesson, after Vietnam it was clear that the US chose not to.

The US invasion of Iraq, more than being predicated on lies was also an object lesson in the potential consequences of regional destabilization. Not only was Iraq directly subjected to the horrors of war but the conflict gave way to the rise of ISIS, civil war in Syria and a strengthening of Iran.

In the wake of the fall of Yanukovych “The Ukraine” ceased to be a Russian territorial possession and became “Ukraine” the sovereign nation, thus far at least. While that looked good through the Western picture window Putin was predictably outraged and the, now free and self-determined Ukrainian people found themselves in an ever tightening East-West vise.

Putin first moved to invade and annex Crimea on the pretext that region was heavily loyal to Russia. Perhaps true but also irrelevant, an invasion is an invasion and what follows is what follows. Having lost his puppet in Ukraine Putin next turned his attention to installing a Russia-friendly puppet leader in the American Oval Office. Enter Donald Trump.

And now we stand on the brink of war in Europe. Maybe cooler heads will prevail. Maybe the threat of sanctions will work. But history tells a more foreboding story. One spark such as the assassination of an Archduke, or a kindergarten struck by an artillery round can propel the world into war.

Both Russia and the United States should be counseled to be very cautious lest the past become prologue, yet again.

Marc Ash is the founder and former Executive Director of Truthout, and is now founder and Editor of Reader Supported News.

Reader Supported News is the Publication of Origin for this work. Permission to republish is freely granted with credit and a link back to Reader Supported News.