Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed is leading Republican nominee Mike Rogers in Michigan’s closely watched open Senate race, according to a new poll, showing signs that the progressive candidate is consolidating support from Democrats after a bitter primary.

El-Sayed leads with 46 percent support to Rogers’s 39 percent among likely voters, according to a Susquehanna Polling & Research survey released Tuesday. Nine percent of voters were undecided while 4 percent favored another candidate in the battleground state, which President Trump flipped in 2024 by 1 percentage point.

The poll is an encouraging sign for El-Sayed, who emerged as his party’s nominee after narrowly defeating Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) in a primary that exposed deep divisions over the direction of the party.

His victory left him with the task of winning over demographics that overwhelmingly backed his opponents, including Black voters, who largely sided with Stevens during the primary.

Democrats have warned that El-Sayed cannot afford to lose significant support from that crucial voting block in November as he looks to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), particularly in Detroit and its surrounding communities.

While the survey does not provide a breakdown of the match-up among Black voters, it does show El-Sayed with a wide advantage in Detroit and the Democratic-leaning areas surrounding the city, where he leads with 62 percent support to Rogers’s 24 percent.

The poll also suggests Democrats have rallied behind El-Sayed, who won more than 91 percent of self-identified Democrats, while Rogers took 90 percent of Republicans. El-Sayed also leads with 46 percent support to Rogers’s 24 percent among independent voters — a key voting bloc in a state that’s seen tight races in recent elections.

El-Sayed, who ran as a populist progressive and is backed by antiestablishment Democrats, holds an advantage over voters who view the economy as their most important issue.

Inflation and the economy were rated the most important issue for 34 percent of voters, and among them El-Sayed leads with 47 percent support to Rogers’s 38 percent.

While these numbers look promising for El-Sayed, both he and Rogers were still viewed more negatively than favorably by most voters, according to the poll.

Forty-five percent of respondents had an unfavorable view of El-Sayed, compared with the 31 percent of respondents who had a favorable view, and 37 percent had an unfavorable view of Rogers while 28 percent held a favorable view.

But among voters who disapproved of Trump’s job performance and also found both El-Sayed and Rogers unfavorable, they still leaned more toward El-Sayed at 26 percent to Rogers’s 15 percent.

The poll was conducted Aug. 11-17 among 800 likely voters.