Why bomb Iran? Why now?

Iran has long been a very real global security threat. They have built a network of heavily militarized proxy organizations throughout the Middle Eastern region. Iranian drones in the hands of Russian operators have killed thousands Ukrainians. In addition Iranian security forces last month reportedly slaughtered tens of thousands of Iranian protesters in their own streets in an attempt to preserve their grip on power. Iran is certainly, without a doubt a dangerous actor on the world stage.

That said the Trump camp reportedly had a promising deal with Iran on the table, talks were ongoing and Iran appeared to be negotiating in reasonably good faith. The Iranians apparently had every incentive to find a way to avoid war. Indeed all out war, a big and very risky proposition under any circumstances did not appear to be necessary. Why then did Trump, against the advice of his top generals choose the war option?

It’s bears noting in the moment that the Trump regime is also under intense domestic political pressure. Many of Trump’s top aids and advisors are embroiled in the Epstein child sex trafficking scandal and Trump himself now stands accused of assaulting a minor child. It is a scandal without parallel in American history.

Trump and his Republican party by all reports are heading for an electoral defeat that will remove them from congressional power. The specter of such a sweeping rebuke by American voters is prompting Trump to threaten the take over of this year’s U.S. midterm elections and deploy the military to enforce control.

Trump’s domestic security forces, the immigration police under his direction are beating, detaining and disappearing both non-citizens and citizens alike. US courts are increasingly demanding a halt to what they define as unlawful conduct by the government.

The Trump regime’s grip on power is clearly threatened. Foreign war as a diversion from domestic pressures is an all too familiar bromide for authoritarian leaders. Uniting the population against a foreign enemy at a time of internal conflict is a time honored short term fix for beleaguered strongmen.

It is also a favorite ploy of Trump’s partner in this military gambit, Israeli Prime Minister Binyman Netanyyau. Bibi has on many occasions improbably managed to maintain control over the Israeli parliamentary government and stay one step ahead of the Israeli judicial system. He has done it by continuing to focus the Israeli population on external threats to the State of Israel. Crude to be sure, effective without a doubt.

Why now? As Trump becomes increasingly desperate to hold on to power a foreign war emerges. To justify war with Tehran Trump has recycled arguments from George W Bush’s ill-conceived march to war with Iraq. He and his aides have tailored the facts to meet the policy and he is abusing the authority granted him as President of the United States to launch a war he believes will insulate him from political downfall. The consequences of the conflict he has now started however may long bedevil the American people he has sworn to serve.