CAPTION: A mother and daughter hold hands beneath the rubble of their home. Both died as a result of Russian missile strike. (photo: )
There have been two recent major developments in Russia’s war against Ukraine and Europe. Ukraine is doing much better and Trump is moving more aggressively to defend Putin. The confluence of those two substantial forces is producing an increasingly unstable security environment in Europe, with significant risks in the foreseeable future.
At the epicenter of the changing dynamic is a Ukrainian military that is starting to turn the tide of the war against Russia’s invading and occupying forces. New tactics, better planning, superior logistics and supply are all shifting the balance of initiative to the advantage of the Ukrainian defenders. Of special note are Ukrainian’s use of robotics on the battlefeild. These are ground-breaking technologies and techniques that every military in the world is watching with close attention.
Typically Donald Trump tries to keep his devotion to Vladimir Putin as much out of public view as possible. However when forced by events to make a critical decision that will materially affect the course go the war he has consistently acted in a manner consistent with Putin’s stated objectives.
Last week’s decision by Donald Trump and Elon Musk to impede Musk’s StarLink-StarShield satellite communication system on which Ukrainian defense forces rely was a major escalation of Trump’s efforts to force Ukrainian capitulation. It is important not to lose sight that this is not “US policy” writ large, but the personal policy of Donald Trump and his inner circle. Those polices have little support among Americans in general or US Congress.
Zbigniew Brzeziński in his 2012 book, Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power wrote, “It cannot be stressed enough that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire.” That statement in the span of just one sentence provides the clearest understanding of Putin’s motive for invading Ukraine imaginable. Ukraine gives Putin an empire and moreover a platform to dominate the affairs of Western Europe.
The fear of being invaded from the east by Russian armies is ancient in the minds of Europeans. Rare is the region of Europe that has not had the pleasure of unwelcome Russian guests at some point in their history. One strategic advantage Russia gains with Ukraine under its control is a geographic one. Ukraine is perfectly located in eastern central Europe to be a staging ground, a launch pad for Russian incursions into European countries that do not tow the Russian line. This is not the stuff of fantasy it is Russian doctrine.
At this moment in time there seems to be a consensus among NATO military experts that Russia lacks the capacity to launch a ground invasion of Western Europe or the baltic states. If that is true it is true because the Ukrainian Military stands directly in Russia’s way. However while a ground invasion might be difficult for Russia in the moment there are many other options Russia has.
With its vast stockpiles of long range missiles Russia can easily strike anywhere in Europe. Yes NATO countries have very good anti missile defenses but Russia’s capacity for volume could present a major problem, particularly with US supplies of Patriot defensive missiles so badly depleted. The area of potentially greater concern is asymmetrical warfare, a speciality of the Russians.
Former Navy SEAL and noted defense analyst Chuck Pfarrer has written and spoken out extensively about what he sees as not only the potential for an asymmetrical war but a sophisticated campaign well underway.
Sabotage, bombings, assassinations and attacks on critical infrastructure are increasing across Europe. While the actors are not always Russian nationals they can almost always be traced back to Russian intelligence agencies.
Pfarrer’s recent YouTube video offers a sobering look at a Russian campaign already well underway in Europe:
The events Pfarrer describes coupled with the enormously destabilizing effects of Donald Trumps actions in support of Putin’s war machine in
Ukraine create an atmosphere fraught with the risk of further escalation and the potential for a rapidly spiraling conflict.
Russia’s provocations coupled with Trump’s destabilization efforts have created a powder-keg environment that could explode at any moment. One thing the United States can attempt to do is rein-in a president that appears to be unstable and largely out of control. There are rumblings in the US Congress that serious challenges to Trump may be coming. Yes if Congress unifies and acts with resolve they can force this rogue President to modify his very unpopular and dangerous conduct. Until that happens we risk sailing into a potentially catastrophic conflict.