If you're expecting a repeat of Harris' takedown of Trump, I have some bad news for you.

On Tuesday night, vice presidential candidates Tim Walz and JD Vance will meet for their first and only scheduled debate ahead of Election Day.

Now, normally there is only one vice presidential debate but what is abnormal about this year’s is that it will likely be the last time voters will see the contrast between the two tickets on a national debate stage. That’s because it appears that former President Donald Trump will not accept Vice President Kamala Harris’ offer for another debate.

So, for me, this year’s vice presidential debate is worth paying attention to more than usual. Here’s some of what I’ll be keeping an eye out for on Tuesday night:

Let’s start with the obvious, we know Vance is not Trump. He clearly doesn’t have the same charisma as the former president. But he is committed to Trump’s MAGA mission ... no matter the cost. Vance has shown that, like Trump, he is willing to push whatever story fits their narrative regardless of the truth.

But while he may still push the same Trump lies, he probably won’t fall for the same traps at the debate that Trump did. If the past is any guide, Vance is not a bad debater. Unlike the former president, he’s a bit more disciplined and a bit more on message.

Just take it from the guy who was on the other side of Vance’s last debate in 2022, former Rep. Tim Ryan. The former congressman said the senator is “able to semi-articulate some kind of intellectual underpinnings of Donald Trump’s rants.”

“He’s very smart. I don’t think there’s any doubt about that. I would never call him dumb by any means,” Ryan told The Columbus Dispatch.

So if you are expecting a repeat of Harris’ commanding performance from the last debate, I have some bad news for you. While Trump rambles and lashes out and veers from one topic to another, Vance has the ability to actually stay focused and discuss policy. He has a deep and comprehensive understanding of how government works. And when you add that to his devotion to Trump and the ideas of the MAGA movement — things he once called “cultural heroin” — it’s going to make for a different kind of debate.

Vance may be less bombastic on stage than Trump, he may sound more thoughtful, he may be a little drier, a little more policy-focused but that doesn’t mean that he is any less dangerous and less extreme than his boss.

So as you watch the debate on Tuesday, don’t just measure Vance for basic coherence and self-control. The bar is low given his running mate and Vance will probably exceed that bar. Instead, listen closely to what he says, that will tell you more than anything else.