On 28 February 2026 top ranking officials of the Islamic Republic of Iran gathered within the regime’s Presidential Complex in Tehran. Lulled into a false sense of security by signals from both the U.S. and Israel. Most important among those signals, purported ongoing negotiations to avoid conflict. What Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei did know was that the Israeli Air Force had surreptitiously launched roughly 30 highly advanced missiles into space or more specifically, low earth orbit.

Just after 7:30 local time the Israeli missiles descended silently on the Iranian compound and its occupants. Khamenei, a cadre of his closest ministers and a few family members were killed as the missiles struck. But there was one more noteworthy death, American credibility.

While it is true that both U.S. and Israeli forces are conducting extensive airstrikes in Tehran it is the Israelis that are taking the lead in assassinating Iranian leaders. Those airstrike assassinations are dramatically complicating the prospects for a negotiated settlement. While it is not clear that Trump administration agrees with the Israeli campaign of assassination their continued support for the Israeli efforts cannot be interpreted as anything other than consent.

The culminative effect of the assassination campaign is that Iran’s version of civilian leadership is disappearing and decisions are increasingly being made by the military wing, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, (IRGC) according to international security observers. If recent Iranian strikes on Israeli targets are any indication the current decision makers in Tehran do not seem in any hurry to negotiate.

Another complicating factor is that confidence in the handling of this affair by U.S. President Donald Trump and his entourage is very low. Few governments anywhere are signaling support for the U.S. strategy which is largely viewed as borderline incoherent. What could a competent presidential administration do given the current circumstances? A couple of suggestions:

1) A unilateral cease fire could be declared. This is an “always available” option in any conflict, but at this moment of the current conflict it is likely the Iranians would be receptive. It is simpler and probably more effective than a negotiated solution because the Iranians for reasons stated above clearly would have little trust in U.S. assurances. However it is not enough that the U.S. stop striking Iran, Israel would have to do the same. Can the U.S. convince Israel to cooperate? Probably if the political will were sufficient. After the shooting stops negotiating a resumption of shipping would likely be easier.

2) Since the war that the Trump and Netanyahu governments created is causing global economic chaos due largely to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz an alternative option to military escalation might be a U.S. counter blockade south of Strait in the northern Sea of Oman. This would create a de facto, you let our ships pass if we let your ships pass environment. What is most attractive about this option is that if it were done professionally and patiently it could be effective at achieving stated goals without all-out war.

At a point if any meaningful progress is to be made the Trump and Netanyahu partnership is going to have to decide who the managing partner is.