The Tide is Turning
Stephen Eric Bronner Reader Supported News
Vice President Kamala Harris. (photo: Alamy)
President Biden withdrew from the race, and an incredible eruption of relief and enthusiasm greeted the new ticket of Kamala Harris and her vice-presidential pick, the earthy Governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz. Avoiding a primary fight at the Convention, she immediately became the recipient of $500 million in donations (on top of the $500 million already raised by President Biden). Her background as an African-American and South Asian woman made her an inspiration for minorities, young people, and women. What’s more, she was primed to present herself as the heir of a legislative record whose remarkable character was never properly conveyed to the American people by President Biden.
Vice-President Harris instantly disoriented Trump’s political machine, and it remains unable to decide on the appropriate strategy against her. Trump’s choice of the bumbling Senator J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) as his vice-presidential candidate, combined with bizarre personal and racist attacks on Harris, have thrown the Republicans on the defensive. Ms. Harris’ personal approval ratings have soared and, what was once a dead-even race, has turned into a 5-8% lead nationally with similar numbers among “independent” voters; “red” states are becoming competitive and swing states are leaning “blue.” The numbers reflect the “bounce” she received following a beautifully scripted Democratic Convention.
However, the popular vote has never been the issue: Trump lost it to Hillary Clinton in 2016 by nearly three million votes, and to Biden in 2020 by just under five million votes. The swing states will prove decisive and there it is too close to call. Complicating the matter further are third party candidates who stand to garner anywhere from 3- 7% of the vote. The best known among them, Robert Kennedy Jr., was ready to support Harris in exchange for a cabinet post, but she turned down the deal, leading him to endorse Trump, who was less picky. This might prove more significant than it initially seems: Kennedy might provide the ex-president with another 2% of the vote while the other less-known left-wing candidates, Jill Stein of the Green Party and Cornel West, could draw another 1-2% away from Harris. In states like Wisconsin and Michigan, these third-party candidates might make the difference. Harris enthusiasts should not be deceived by the establishment and liberal media. The vice-president is still on her “honeymoon” with the American public; it is common knowledge that the real campaign only begins in September after the “Labor Day” holiday.
Harris and Trump will hold a debate on September 10, 2024, and much is expected from her as against the demagogue who is still carrying heavy baggage from the past. “The Washington Post” reported that Trump was caught lying over 30,000 times while in office –and the numbers have only grown since then. He recently lost a civil case charging him with sexual molestation and libel, and an adult film actress won a judgment against him. Trump was impeached twice and he has been convicted on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records and tax fraud in New York. He was Indicted for allegedly violating the Espionage Act by illegally seizing 11,000 documents upon leaving office in 2021, 100 of which were highly classified. State trials also await in Georgia and Washington DC regarding his attempts to rig the 2020 elections and hinder the peaceful transfer of power through his role in the insurrection of January 6th 2021.
Trump’s understanding of politics has always been “transactional,” and he has promised pardons for convicted participants in the uprising should he again become president. Courts have also been kind to him – or better the justices that he appointed have been kind to him. The Supreme Court granted the ex-president “immunity” for all criminal acts performed while fulfilling his duties, which has delayed all his remaining legal battles. Should he re-take the presidency, indeed, he will undoubtedly demand that his hand-picked officials at the Department of Justice suspend all prosecutions against him.
Trump has been publicly branded a pathological liar, a sexual abuser, a grifter, a gangster, and even a traitor. The public has been constantly reminded of his support for xenophobic white nationalism. He has called military veterans “suckers and losers,” disparaged science, and dismissed environmentalism. Trump’s foreign policy turned the United States into a global laughing-stock, undermined traditional alliances, and put America at risk by embracing authoritarian leaders like Vladimir Putin and Kim Jung-un. The astounding corruption of his former administration benefited his family’s business interests to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars. His measures to deregulate markets had a catastrophic impact on everyday citizens and his tax-cuts, which favored the top .01%, increased the federal budget deficit, and resulted in the greatest upward shift of wealth in American history.
Every voter should read a summary of the 1000-page blatantly neo-fascist agenda for a new Trump administration, “Project 2025.” was sponsored by the reactionary Heritage Foundation and concocted by the ex-president’s cronies. Should Trump win in 2024, the document states, he will purge the civil service of 50,000 “rogue bureaucrats.” He will also “weaponize” the intelligence agencies, the Federal Reserve, and the Internal Revenue Service by essentially placing them under presidential control. Furthermore, the Department of Education and the Environmental Protection Agency will be abolished, and the Department of Health and Human Services will be cut to the bone.
Healthcare will become the responsibility of individual states and the national health-care system, “Obamacare,” is in danger of being eliminated entirely. vanish. Social Security will suffer a drastic rollback and the cost of prescription drugs will rise. Meanwhile, gun rights will be protected and the military will not only patrol America’s Southern border with Mexico, but provide law and order in dangerous neighborhoods, and quell demonstrations that do not meet the president’s approval. His dictatorial ambitions may not reach fruition, but they should be taken seriously.
Trump views himself as “the world spirit on a white horse,“ which was how Hegel described Napoleon. The ex-president has insisted that his global stature will enable him to end the war between Russia and Ukraine “in a day” -- though naturally, he refuses to say how. Trump has also threatened to place huge tariffs on Chinese imports, prepare for war with the Asian hegemon, withdraw from NATO, defund the UN, and renounce other international commitments. He has again threatened to close America’s Southern border, complete his projected wall, and deport 15-20 million immigrants. Such talk is probably red meat thrown to his followers. Nevertheless, it sheds light on the tenor of his agenda.
Trump is showing his age in meandering, often incoherent, and racist speeches. He incessantly insulted Biden, who is 80 years old, for his supposed enfeeblement, which led to his withdrawal from the race. At 59 years old, however, Harris turned the tables on Trump, who is 78 years old. She seized hold of the age-issue and, always fickle, the media shifted its publicity allegiance. Prior to the Harris candidacy, it was Trump all day every day, whereas now the spotlight is on Harris.
How long that will last is an open question. Trump’s standing remains rock-solid among his base, namely, the least educated voters, non-urban constituencies, anachronistic sectors of the industrial working class, Evangelicals, older white men, and even white women—though the overturning of Roe v. Wade by “Trump’s Supreme Court” may change that. The ex-president rules the Republican Party with an iron fist, he has no meaningful rivals, and “moderate” Republicans have fallen into line behind him. These opportunists greased the wheels for Trump’s victory in 2016 and they implacably opposing the Democrats on every issue and at every turn. These “moderate” conservatives were cowards, pure and simple. They feared the political repercussions of questioning their leader even when it came to his support for the insurrection, white nationalism, and his false claim that the 2020 election was “stolen” from him.
Few people seriously believe that Kamala Harris is a pathological liar, “stupid,” a grifter, or a traitor. The Vice-President will run on Biden’s remarkable record as president. He defended American democracy in the face of a possible coup. His administration was more diverse and scandal-free than any in the history of America. Biden reinvigorated NATO in defense of Ukraine, stood up to China on the fate of Taiwan, and rejected the temptations of isolationism. Moreover, the president pushed through legislation to rebuild a collapsing infrastructure, reduce carbon emissions, protect civil liberties and voting rights, and defend the welfare state. Harris faces the difficult task of presenting herself as an architect of Biden’s programs and, simultaneously, as an independent political actor in her own right.
The vice-president is not identified with any significant issue other than immigration, where she did not distinguish herself, and abortion rights. This has led Trump to lambast her as an “affirmative action hire.” So far, that hasn’t worked. Articulate, elegant, sophisticated, and youthful, poised, and intelligent, Harris’s bearing has made such attacks seem absurd. But that can change. FOX News is no novice when it comes to using racism and sexism against perceived enemies and Harris is already being vilified as the most “communist, Marxist, liberal” candidate ever.
Such propaganda can impact low-information swing voters and it is a mistake to underestimate the lingering power of racist and sexist tropes. So far, Harris has remained relatively silent on matters of policy though she is tentatively beginning to highlight the importance of increasing the child-tax credit, fighting child-poverty, and providing tax incentives for housing construction. Essentially, Harris is presenting herself as a defender of women and the family.
But she will need to do better than that. She will need to counter the general feeling that inflation is growing, the economy is in decline, and crime is on the rise. Moreover, not only evangelicals believe that the “diversity, equality, and inclusion” demands of the LGBTQ+ community in particular pose a threat to traditional American values. Trump’s conspiracy fetishism only strengthens those attitudes by targeting various non-existent cabals such as the Democratic Party-run pedophile rings that feed into what has been called the “paranoid strain” in American politics.
The ex-president’s charismatic appeal to those who Hillary Clinton legitimately termed “deplorables” is real – and there is little doubt that the movement will outlive the man. His extremist followers will surely attempt to intimidate voters at voting sites and, should Trump lose, there will be new talk of stolen elections and violent protest. But the greatest danger is the split in the Democratic Party over the
Biden administration’s unyielding support for Ukraine against Russia and Israel in its war against Hamas. So far, left-wing critics within the party have acted responsibly. But the possibility exists that many of them will vote for a third-party candidate or not vote at all. That possibility may increase as Vice-President Harris attempts to sway “moderate” Republicans, who feel betrayed by their party, and “independent” voters who are seemingly unaware of what is at stake in this election.
Is the progressive message getting through? Trump still dominates the airwaves and ratings drop when he is ignored. Even if the commentary is critical, as most writers know, there is no such thing as bad publicity. Indeed, criticism and sarcasm only heighten feelings of resentment among Trump’s supporters. Vice-President Harris will need to steal the spotlight and mobilize citizens to vote. That is the most essential task of all; because they favor elites, and gain their votes outside of urban areas, Republicans always want to keep the vote-count low –and they have had success. . They have made voting more difficult, often through trifling legalistic tricks: lessening the number of voting sites, shifting them to inconvenient locations, complicating the need for identification, shortening voting hours, redistricting, making toilets and water unavailable for those waiting to cast their ballots, and the list goes on.
Winning the popular vote is not enough: Democrats must win a majority in the “electoral college,” an anti-democratic institutional inheritance, which was introduced at the nation’s founding. Since World War II, it has benefited Republicans. For example: Al Gore the Democratic Party’s candidate in 2000 won a popular majority by 500,00 ballots, but lost the electoral college by 5 votes to the Republican candidate George Bush, and Hillary Clinton in 2016 received 3 million more votes than Trump yet lost the electoral college 304 to 227.
Can Kamala win in 2024? Yes! Should she win? Yes! But will she win? Progressives should not deceive themselves. The tide is turning. But It is too early to celebrate: Jon Stewart, the great political comedian, and host of “The Daily Show,” put the matter very well when he noted that the Democrats “have gone from despair at the certainty of a Trump victory to the utter joy of a statistical tie.” As political people, it would be irresponsible to expect the best rather than prepare for the worst. We have been down that road before, and it is time to change direction.
Stephen Eric Bronner is Co-Director of the International Council for Diplomacy and Dialogue and Board of Governors Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Rutgers University.
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