Nearly 61% believe country is in recession and 65% of independents say economy is worse, according to new Harris poll

With the midterm elections less than three weeks away, key voting groups including independents, rural voters and even some Republicans are increasingly disenchanted with Donald Trump’s economy, according to an exclusive Harris poll for the Guardian.

The majority of those surveyed were pessimistic about the economy, with three-quarters of Americans saying they are concerned about a recession while 61% wrongly believe that the US is already experiencing one. By its typical definition, the US is not currently experiencing a recession.

The poll shows growing weariness across the political spectrum over high prices.

Republicans, fighting to keep control of Congress, are losing support with independent voters, who are expected to be the deciding factor in key swing races. Nearly two-thirds (65%) of independents said the economy was worse, up from 48% who said the same in September 2024 in the heat of the 2024 presidential election.

Even within the Republican ranks, optimism has waned. In February 2025, just a few weeks after Trump was inaugurated, 39% of Republicans said the economy was getting better. By February 2026, just before the US launched attacks against Iran, that optimism was up to 49%. In the latest poll, just 28% of Republicans said the economy was getting better.

Voters say the high prices they are seeing at gas stations and grocery stores will be a key factor when they cast their votes in November. Two-thirds of those polled said that gas prices and grocery prices are their most important issues heading into the election, followed by living expenses, healthcare costs and foreign affairs.

Recent inflation data showed that annualized prices increased 3.7% in September, the highest reading before a midterm election, excluding the pandemic, since 1990.

Energy prices have been especially high since the Iran war, with average gas prices at the pump crossing $1.20 more per gallon compared with a year ago. California drivers, who are experiencing the highest gas prices, are paying on average $6.20 per gallon, according to AAA.

Democrats in swing races have spent much of the last few months framing their midterm battles as a fight, in part, against a growing affordability crisis. James Talarico, the Democratic candidate in a closely watched US Senate race in Texas, has a campaign ad of him holding a paper bag of groceries. “Too many Texans feel like they’re drowning, the cost of groceries, gas, healthcare,” he says in the video.

“They say I can’t win because of my name,” Abdul El-Sayed, another Democratic candidate for a US Senate race in Michigan, said at a recent campaign event. “My name is not the reason your gas prices are through the roof. My name is not the reason you can’t afford your groceries.”

In the new poll, a vast majority of Americans agreed that there was an affordability crisis, including 96% of Republicans. But Americans still remain divided over who has a solution.

• Democrats (71%) were more likely than Republicans (59%) to say that their own party had a solution.


• Republicans were more likely (26%) to say neither party had a solution compared with Democrats (17%)


• Half of independents said neither party had a solution, while 14% sided with Democrats and 10% with Republicans.

Rural Americans, considered a core base for Trump, were more likely to believe that neither party has a solution (41%) compared with their suburban (35%) and urban (27%) counterparts. Four out of 10 of rural Americans said they were living in “survival mode”, where one surprise bill could sink them, compared with 35% of urban and 27% of suburban Americans.

When asked what is most affecting today’s gas prices, 46% of rural Americans said the US government compared with 28% of Republicans who said the same. Republicans were the least likely of any group to blame the US government, instead spreading the blame across oil companies, the Iranian government and natural economic fluctuations.