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Hello All,

Yesterday a story that seemed very odd broke in the news. The USA has invited most NATO states to a meeting in Poland next month to discuss the state of the alliance—but left 5 rather important states off the invitation list. The five were the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania), the United Kingdom and France.

These omissions left many scratching their heads. These are all strategically crucial states who are vital to the future of NATO. The Baltics are, per capita, some of the biggest spenders in Europe on defense, and the UK and France maintain some of the largest and most effective military forces on the continent. The article that broke the story mentioned the confusion behind the omissions.

The planned meeting in Poland, which Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby has spearheaded, is essentially a working group focused on NATO’s future, according to six diplomats familiar with the planning. But many of the countries who didn’t receive an invite — such as the United Kingdom, France and the Baltic countries — are big defense spenders and play key roles in the alliance, leaving their diplomats wondering why they’re being frozen out.

Unfortunately, this confusion is unwarranted. The five selected for omission are, within the context of what the Trump administration is trying to achieve in Europe, rather brutally effective. The Trump administration is trying to keep these five out of this discussion because they are vital to European defense being more united (and less reliant on the USA). The US is trying now to divide European NATO for its own purposes and has already spent months putting its plans into action. This is just the most recent step in an American strategy. As such I thought I would go through US policy using the ends/ways/means paradigm so you can see what the intention is, and why it very well might work if European states do not act intelligently in their own interest.

Ends

The Trump administration is too often portrayed as stupid and buffoonish. When it comes to the future of NATO, that is far from the case.